Thursday is MLB’s get-away day, with only 14 teams in action and three games starting after 5 p.m. ET.
But I’m quite interested in the nightcap between the Royals and Angels in Anaheim.
The Royals are a good team, led by a superstar MVP contender (Bobby Witt Jr.) and a Cy Young contender (Cole Ragans), with a 22-16 record and the third-highest run differential in the American League (+46).
But they recently suffered a tough weekend series with the also-tough Brewers, draining their bullpen.
Meanwhile, the Angels have a mediocre starting pitcher and a replacement-level bullpen, so I’m betting on a higher-scoring game Thursday evening.
Royals vs. Angels Prediction
(9:38 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
On Wednesday, the Royals used six relievers to hold their two-run lead and steal the series from Milwaukee.
Tyler Duffy and Will Smith pitched for the third time in four days.
Closer James McArthur and lefty Angel Zerpa pitched on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Royals bullpen is fully extended, so manager Matt Quatraro will likely ask starting pitcher Michael Wacha to eat as many innings as possible in Game 1 of this series.
That’s not a good thing. Wacha is a league-average pitcher at best, carrying a 5.50 ERA paired with a 4.45 expected ERA.
He’s a soft-tossing righty with limited stuff (93 mph fastball, 88 Stuff+ rating) who relies heavily on changeups to induce weak contact, which works to limited effect.
Conversely, Anaheim starting pitcher Reid Detmers is a polarizing figure with lively secondary offerings (changeup and slider) but a mediocre fastball.
I remain cautiously optimistic about his long-term projection, but he’s currently slumping, having allowed 16 earned runs over his past 17 innings.
As mentioned, the Angels’ bullpen is nothing to write home about, posting an ERA near 6.00 over the past two weeks.
They’re also extended, with their top-four highest-leverage relievers pitching in Wednesday’s 5-4 win over the Pirates.
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Both squads boast average offenses, but they also have top-tier power in the lineups, including Witt, Salvador Perez (164 OPS+, eight homers), Jo Adell (127 OPS+, five homers) and Taylor Ward (116 OPS+, six homers).
Regardless, run prevention will be tricky between all the mediocre pitchers toeing the rubber, and I project this total closer to nine runs than 8.5.
Royals vs. Angels Pick
Over 8.5 (+100, Bet365)