It’s do-or-die for the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings in a Western Conference NBA play-in matchup Tuesday night.
That means we could get some explosive performances from Stephen Curry, one of the greatest point guards ever to step foot on a court, and De’Aaron Fox, the reigning Clutch Player of the Year award winner.
Interestingly, Curry finished the regular season as the odds favorite for Clutch Player of the Year, potentially giving us a battle between the two most clutch players in the league in a win-or-go-home scenario.
How much better can it get?
Let’s dive into our two favorite player props from Tuesday night’s NBA Play-In Tournament matchup between the Warriors and Kings.
Top player props for Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament
Stephen Curry over 28.5 points (-125, bet365)
Curry’s infamous Game 7 against the Kings in Sacramento last season was one of the best performances of his NBA career. He scored 50 points, pulled down eight rebounds and dishing out six assists in an offensive masterclass.
His track record in elimination games has been quite solid, boasting a 9-5 record in 14 win-or-go-home games and averaging 29.4 points, seven assists and 5.9 rebounds on a 44/36/90 shooting.
Furthermore, Curry posted 33.7 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field during last season’s seven-game playoff series against the Kings; he scored 29 or more points in six of those seven games, falling just one point shy (28 points) of his current betting line (28.5) in last year’s Game 2.
His volume in that series was encouraging, as he averaged nearly 25 field goal attempts per game. He will likely have to shoot just as much this time for the Dubs to have any shot at squeezing by Sacramento.
The Kings’ perimeter defense has been a significant liability this season, allowing opponents to shoot 38.7% from behind the arc (29th in opponent 3P%). For a three-point assassin like Curry, this is a perfect matchup.
Curry could play 40 or more minutes in this matchup, as his career average is 40.9 minutes in elimination games. That is a substantial increase from his average of 32.7 minutes per game this season.
In the four games Curry has played at least 40 minutes during the 2023-24 regular season, he has averaged 41.3 points per game.
I’ll back the over on Curry’s points without hesitation in an elimination game against Sacramento.
Domantas Sabonis under 8.5 assists (-111, FanDuel)
Sabonis had a playoff series to forget in the first round last year, as the Warriors held him to 16.4 points, 11 rebounds and 4.7 assists on 49.5% shooting from the field.
Golden State’s physicality, particularly from Kevon Looney and Draymond Green, disrupted Sabonis’ groove and confidence offensively.
During that playoff series, Sabonis failed to record nine or more assists in any game, which is what would be required for him to hit the over on his line (8.5) for Tuesday.
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In fact, Sabonis has only reached nine assists in two of his 26 total outings versus the Warriors.
In addition to Green and Looney, the Dubs now have rookie center Trayce Jackson-Davis in the frontcourt. The physicality of those three players could cause issues for Sabonis.
Golden State also recognizes that Sabonis is the key to the Kings’ offense and that getting the ball out of his hands is its best chance of stealing a road win in this spot.