Against the odds, the New York Islanders have stabilized.
Despite the fact that they’re missing three regular defensemen and have made a habit of blowing leads late in games, the Isles are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and played themselves into second place in the Metropolitan Division with their win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night.
The Isles continue their home stand with a game against the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday night.
Ducks vs. Islanders prediction
One month ago the Ducks were one of the pleasant surprises in the National Hockey League.
Anaheim produced a six-game winning streak and was 9-6-0 through its first 15 contests. Not bad at all for a team that was expected to be a contender for the worst record in the NHL this season.
But things have gone sour since then, and the Ducks will now head to Long Island with one win in their last 12 contests and are in serious jeopardy of falling into last place in the NHL.
While the results for the Ducks have been terrible of late, their underlying numbers haven’t been terrible.
Anaheim’s -23 goal difference at 5-on-5 is the worst mark in the NHL over the last month, but its expected goal difference is just -1.9.
Some positive regression should be coming for the Ducks, but their lack of depth will always make them a candidate to under-deliver compared to their predictive metrics.
In addition to some poor finishing, the Ducks are also in desperate need of some strong goaltending right now. Anaheim’s .892 save percentage is the 10th-worst mark in the NHL and the Ducks rank last with an .870 SV% at 5-on-5 over the last month.
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The Isles are picking up points at a great clip of late, but this team does not profile well as a big favorite.
The Isles are banged up on the blueline and have two players they just acquired (Mike Reilly and Robert Bortuzzo) playing meaningful minutes right now.
With the defense banged up, the Isles have turned to their offense to do the heavy lifting and their star players have answered the call.
Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson and Brock Nelson are all in great form and have the Islanders averaging 4.4 goals per game over their last 11 contests.
Although their reputation is that of a tight-checking, defense-first team, the Islanders have played a lot of high-event hockey this season and with this patchwork defense it’s likely to continue.
Back the Over 6 in this contest and sprinkle Ross Johnston as a long shot anytime goalscorer in his return to Long Island.
The Bet: Over 6 (-105, BetMGM); Ross Johnson anytime goal (+1100)