Sebastian Korda seems to have his 2023 season back on track.
After going to the finals at ATP Adelaide in January, Korda was a trendy dark horse pick to make a run at the 2023 Australian Open.
The 22-year-old American did just that, but unfortunately his tournament ended with an injury in the quarterfinals.
Korda would be sidelined for four months and what looked like a potential breakout season was all of a sudden in flux.
Korda made his return in the thick of the European clay-court season to mixed results — he lost his first two matches before getting on the board with a win in Round 1 at Roland Garros — but he seems to have found a bit of form on the grass.
Korda defeated Daniel Evans and Frances Tiafoe to earn a tilt with World No. 13 Cam Norrie in the quarterfinals at the Queen’s Club Championship.
Sebastian Korda vs. Cam Norrie prediction
(9:40 a.m. ET)
The betting market seems to be buying Korda’s recent performances.
At the time of writing, the American is an even-money underdog against Norrie, who beat Miomir Kecmanovic and Jordan Thompson in the first two rounds in London.
And while you could make a logical argument that Korda is the better overall player than Norrie in a vacuum, it does seem like the bookies are getting a bit carried away here.
Not only has Norrie established himself as one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour over the last few years, but he’s also been really strong on grass.
The 27-year-old has won 15 of his last 20 matches on the lawn and went to the finals at Queen’s Club in 2021.
Norrie’s ability to move and his willingness to extend points and wait for his opponents to make mistakes has translated well onto the surface.
Korda’s record on grass is also impressive — he’s won eight of 12 contests on the lawn — but his experience on the surface is much more limited compared to Norrie, who has played 40 tour-level matches on grass in his career.
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The ceiling for Korda is certainly higher than Norrie, but right now it’s hard to justify a play on the American in just his sixth match since January.
That’s especially true against Norrie, whose main weapon is his fitness and willingness to battle.
Korda looks to be on the right path after the injury, but the market is overreacting to his current two-match win streak.
Our pick
Cam Norrie -120 (PointsBet)