It’s pretty rare that there’s any value left in the Conn Smythe Award market when you get to the Stanley Cup Finals.
With three rounds of playoff hockey already in the books, it’s usually pretty clear who is on the shortlist to be named MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the bookmakers adjust accordingly.
This season, that is only half-true.
Though it is true that the Conn Smythe would be a two-horse race between Sergei Bobrovsky (+200) and Matthew Tkachuk (+300) if the Florida Panthers win Lord Stanley’s Cup, things are not all that straightforward if the Vegas Golden Knights (who are slight favorites to win the series) are crowned champions.
2023 Conn Smythe Award prediction
Jack Eichel has been terrific during the playoffs and he’s the biggest star on Vegas, but his price (+400) is way too short to be interesting.
He’s not a shoo-in to be named postseason MVP if Vegas wins.
Eichel leads the team with 18 points (six goals, 12 assists) in 17 games, but it’s pretty bunched up and there are a few other Knights that can easily lap Eichel with big performances against the Panthers.
Jonathan Marchessault has come alive in the past two rounds and now has 17 points (9G, 8A), Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev each have 15 (6G, 9A) and William Karlsson has 10 goals and 14 points after a terrific showing in the Western Conference Finals.
Chandler Stephenson and his 14 points are also worth mentioning, especially because he’s had a couple of gigantic goals for the Knights this spring.
And then there’s the Adin Hill conundrum.
A wonderful story, Hill is a career backup who was thrust into the starting role after Laurent Brossoit got injured in the business end of Round 2.
Hill has been superb since filling in and surprised everyone by outdueling Jake Oettinger last round.
Hill’s run has been a heart-warming story, but his lack of gametime makes him a toss in this market at +1000.
So if we’re tossing Hill and Eichel’s price is too short, that leaves us with a handful of other contenders: Marchessault, Stone, Karlsson, Barbashev and Stephenson.
Any one of those players could feasibly be named MVP of the postseason with a monster Stanley Cup.
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But one price really jump out.
Like Eichel, the prices on Marchessault (+650) and Karlsson (+650) seem to be out of range considering how bunched things are at the top of the team’s scoring race.
Mark Stone is known as a two-way force and will be tasked with shutting down Matthew Tkachuk, but that kind of performance rarely catches the eyes of voters.
Stone will need to produce offensively — which he can certainly do — but he’s sitting at +1500, which pales in comparison to a couple of his teammates with similar outputs.
You could make a terrific argument that Stephenson is worth a shot at +4000.
He’s got 14 points, some massive goals and is a vital piece of Vegas’ best two-way line, but like Stone it gives me a bit of pause to back a player who will be going up against Florida’s best line.
Stephenson can absolutely put together the type of series that earns him enough votes to win the Conn Smythe, but he’ll be swimming upstream and is a considerably shorter price than the player I landed on.
It doesn’t make much sense to me that Ivan Barbashev is +6600 in this market.
I have no problem with him being the biggest long shot of this cohort, but he’s only three points adrift of Eichel and has had some huge performances in the playoffs for Vegas.
Crucially, Barbashev also plays on the top line, so he’s got a realistic chance of having the type of series he’d need to pass Eichel, Marchessult, Karlsson and Stone.
The Conn Smythe Award is voted on by the hockey media during the Stanley Cup Final.
Recency bias is a real thing, so any one of these Knights could tilt the scales with a star-turn against Florida.
Why not take the player with the longest odds by a mile?
2023 Conn Smythe Award pick
Ivan Barbashev +6600 (FanDuel)
