Just a few weeks ago, it looked like the Seahawks might be running away with the NFC West in one of the more surprising divisional runs in recent memory. Then came this resurgent run from the 49ers, who have won six straight ahead of Thursday’s meeting with their bitter rivals.
San Francisco is laying 3.5 points against the spread entering this midweek tilt, which would all but secure a division title for the Niners if they pull it out. Can Seattle surprise once again to keep its NFL playoff hopes alive?
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
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Seahawks vs. 49ers odds (via BetMGM)
- 49ers -3.5 (-105), moneyline -185
- Seahawks +3.5 (-115), moneyline +150
- O/U 43.5 (-110)
Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction and analysis
If you’re someone who likes wagering strictly off numbers and betting theory, there’s a strong case to be made for the Seahawks, who were dealing at close to pick ‘em at some shops before last week and are dealing at an attractive price as far as home underdogs go.
If you’re betting off what we’ve seen from these two teams in recent weeks, though, it’s hard to envision this ending up as a close game. And that’s where the case for Seattle falls apart.
The Seahawks were among the NFL’s best bets over the first half of the season, winning six of their first nine games (6-3 ATS) behind an MVP-level start from Geno Smith. Then the wheels came off: they’ve lost three of their last four games (1-3 ATS) after last week’s stunning loss to the Panthers, who ran all over Seattle’s beleaguered front (223 yards) in a dominant win.
That shoddy run defense has been a primary culprit for the Seahawks’ recent collapse, as this group has surrendered at least 161 rushing yards in four straight games and ceded a whopping 5.1 yards per carry in that 1-3 stretch. That’s come alongside a surprising turnover streak for Smith, who has thrown as many interceptions over his last three starts (4) as he did across his first 10.
Both of those issues are serious concerns against the 49ers, who rank second in the league in interceptions (14) and are coming off a 209-yard rushing performance in Week 14. This offense has come alive under rookie Brock Purdy, who’s led this group to two of its four highest-scoring efforts all year, and San Francisco’s defense ranks first in just about every relevant defensive category under the tutelage of hot-shot coordinator DeMeco Ryans.
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Simply put, no team wants to face the Niners right now on the heels of their six-game win streak, during which San Francisco ranks fourth in scoring offense (28.7 PPG) and first in scoring defense (10.7 PPG) with the NFL’s best point differential (+108). All six of those wins came by at least six points, and five of them were decided by at least two touchdowns.
The 49ers are a brutal matchup for any team right now – let alone one with a turnover problem and one of the league’s worst run defenses that lost by 20 points when these teams met in Week 2. There’s always a chance Purdy turns into a pumpkin in the first road start of his career, but I’d expect Kyle Shanahan to limit his opportunities for damage and play to the strengths of his elite roster in a crucial divisional rematch.
Seahawks vs. 49ers pick
- 49ers -3.5 (-105 BetMGM)